This fall was anything but quiet in both the local and national housing market. From interest rate changes to uneven economic data, there was plenty for buyers and sellers to keep an eye on. 

Here is a quick fall recap with insights from the Alabama Association of REALTORS® (AAR) monthly Economic & Real Estate Reports. 

The economic picture was sort of a mixed bag this fall marked by uneven job growth and slowly cooling inflation. The federal government shutdown delayed some official reports, but the available data told a story of a labor market that lost momentum early in the season but showed signs of finding its footing by November. Preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that 64,000 jobs were added nationally in November, exceeding the consensus estimate of 40,000. 

Inflation numbers were also limited due to the shutdown, but expert agencies predicted that inflation would continue an upward climb during early fall. October data was unavailable, but by November, reports showed that the year-over-year inflation rate declined to 2.7% (from 3.0% in September), marking the first decrease since April.

Mortgage rates dipped early in September to 6.26% before climbing to 6.34% by the end of the month. By early October, rates were trending lower, and that downward momentum continued, with average rates reaching 6.17% by month’s end. However, rates began creeping back up in November, rising to 6.26% by the end of the third week, before falling again to 6.19% in early December. 

Against the shifting national backdrop, Alabama’s housing market showed signs of resilience as the fall season unfolded. 

Home sales were down 1.2% in September and 1.7% in October compared to the same months in 2024. However, by the time November rolled around, year-over-year sales climbed 3.8%, potentially due to the October dip in mortgage interest rates. 

The median home sales price increased by 8.6% in September, 19.7% in October, and 18.5% in November, compared to the previous year’s numbers. AAR predicts that the state median home sales price will remain roughly unchanged between November and December. 

Housing supply, an estimate of the number of months it would take for all houses on the market to sell, decreased slightly in September from August to 4.7 months. However, this number was an increase from the four months of supply we had the previous year. Supply went up to 4.9 months in October (4.4 in 2024) and then dipped a little to 4.8 months in November. Overall, these numbers are still trending up year-over-year. 

Alabama’s active listings remained strong through the fall, starting at 20,765 in September, up from 18,819 a year earlier, and rising slightly to 20,886 in October—101 more than the previous month and the highest level in at least five years. Listings dipped a bit in November to 20,725, down 141 from October, but were still well above last year’s 19,272, marking a 7.5% annual increase. Even with the small month-to-month changes, inventory has stayed above 20,000 for the past six months.

When it comes to foreclosure activity, September recorded 554 foreclosures, up from 435 one year earlier, though it also marked the first monthly decline in seven months. Foreclosures continued to ease in October, falling to 491, and dipped again in November to 485. Overall, foreclosures remained higher than last year’s levels but declined for three straight months.

Overall, the fall numbers suggest that Alabama’s housing market is slowly finding its balance. While challenges remain and uncertainty still looms in the national economy, the market appears to be moving toward a more stable footing as the year comes to a close.